Countdown Test

00days 00hours 00minutes 00seconds 2020-12-25 12:00 AM     00days 00hours 00minutes 00seconds 2020-10-25 12:00…

I’m gonna be honest with you — last week was a roller coaster for me.

And not because Prince Harry and Meghan Markle tried to ghost the Queen of England.

 

 

In overnight trading Tuesday, Dow futures were down about 400 points, as Wall Street got wind of the Iranian missile attack on U.S. troops in Iraq, fanning the WWIII flames.

And while buy-and-hold stock traders were starting to sweat, my bearish options trades were looking better and better.

However, that plunge in stocks turned out to be just a knee-jerk reaction, because by Wednesday’s trading session, the Dow was higher and the S&P was on its way to another record.

Now, do I want a big stock market crash or an economic recession?

Of course not. Only a sadist wishes for hard times.

But have I been expecting a downturn? Abso-friggin-lutely.

I mean, bull markets can only last so long, and the clock is surely ticking on this decade-plus rally.

So when I saw my bearish trades up big, and then not up so big, it was a bit of a gut-punch. And as I told some of my V.I.P. Weekly Windfalls subscribers, I was even tempted to pull a Harry & Meghan — at least for a few days.

Then along came inspiration from none other than Patriots QB Tom Brady.

 

What is Trader Fatigue?

 

If you polled the American people, my guess is the majority of adults would consider themselves “busy.”

Unlike some of our friends in Europe and elsewhere around the world, the American value system is centered on a strong work ethic.

If you told someone from, say, Spain or Greece that you worked 55 hours this week, they might look at you like, “But… why?”

And when you conjure up images of Wall Street, in particular, my guess is you’re not picturing a laid-back trader with his or her feet up on their desk.

No — you’re probably imagining that old trope: a frantic trading floor with hundreds of sweaty, coked-up suits shouting buy and sell orders, aren’t you?

 

 

Of course, a lot has changed on Wall Street since the ‘80s, as most business is done from behind a computer screen now… but that doesn’t mean stalking stocks and options is any less stressful these days.

And while I know there are a lot of jobs that are more stressful — props to our military, especially — that doesn’t mean “trader fatigue” (which is exactly what it sounds like) isn’t real.

It’s very real, and sometimes all it takes is a blip of a cold streak to hit you.

You also have to remember that unlike a lot of other “gurus” making stock and options recommendations out there, the traders here at RagingBull are putting our own money on the line.

So when sh*t hits the fan and a couple trades go wrong, we can’t just turn off the lights and say, “Have a great weekend, Bob-o!” and not think of it again until Monday.

It simply doesn’t work like that.

RagingBull gurus, including myself, not only have a burning desire to make our subscribers money, we (like everyone else in the world) also want to make money for ourselves.

Now, I’m not trying to make excuses or solicit sympathy here — I’m simply explaining my mentality and giving you some background.

And the reason I’m outlining all this is because I’m still a teacher at heart (remember, I was an elementary school teacher before I began trading stocks), so I view every experience, good or bad, as an opportunity to learn and get better!

Because remember: the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

 

3 Lessons from Tom Terrific

 

After the Patriots suffered a home-field upset by the Tennessee Titans during the playoffs last weekend, the sports world was all abuzz with one question:

Is Tom Brady retiring?

However, last Wednesday, the future Hall of Famer all but put an end to the speculation (at least as far as retirement rumors — it’s still TBD if he’ll remain a Patriot), posting this caption on Instagram:

 

 

In my opinion, Brady couldn’t have said it better, and the timing of his post hit home for me, personally.

So, here are some things we can learn from one of the greatest athletes of our generation:

 

  1. Even GOATs fail sometimes. But they learn from it.

 

As Brady said — failure is inevitable. But the important thing is that you find teachable moments.

As I settle back into things next week, I will continue with my three strategies — Jason Bond Picks for small-cap stock trades, Smoke Signals for more aggressive bearish options trades, and, of course, Weekly Windfalls for my “casino strategy” — and accurately journal what’s making me money and what isn’t.

By writing things down, I can get a sense of things that are working and things that aren’t, and call an audible when necessary.

Brady also helped me remember that I’m pretty darn good at trading! That’s how I went from being your average American school teacher to making a steady six figures in trading profits each year.

So while I am ALWAYS striving to be the absolute best, and improvement is a road that never ends, I need to maintain confidence in the abilities that got me this far.

(And, to be honest, the schadenfreude derived from a legend like Brady taking an L doesn’t hurt…)

 

 

  1. We all need strong leaders in our lives to lean on when life goes sideways.

Whether it’s your wife, husband, best friend, mom, grandpa, rabbi, boss, creepy neighbor — whatever — it helps to have someone who can pick you up when you get down.

Just like on the football field, you can’t be great without a great leader.

My trading mentor, MENSA member and fellow RagingBull founder Jeff Bishop, took me under his wing and taught me about trading stocks.

And thankfully he did; it was the lifeline I needed to crawl out of a sea of student loan debt, and even now he’s there to give me words of encouragement when necessary.

In turn, I mentored three of the most red-hot RagingBull gurus trading today: Kyle Dennis, Nathan Bear, and Taylor Conway. And I would say they’re doing pretty well…

 

 

Ahh, the circle of life. 🙂

And if one of them starts to show signs of trader fatigue in the future, I’ll be there to pick them up and put the wind at their backs again.

I’d also like to teach YOU, guys and gals — and if you upgrade to my premium Weekly Windfalls service, you can watch me trade in real-time. I guarantee total transparency and honesty, obviously, along with a stream of lessons on stocks and options.

  1. Dust yourself off and get back in the fight.

Timing the top of the market is hard — everyone knows that.

And getting the rug pulled out from under me last week felt like a dagger.

I was infuriated and even considered a couple of weeks off from trading.

But, as I told my premium subscribers last week after Brady’s Instagram post, I’m ready to address my trading mistakes and get back in the arena.

also have more to prove.

I’m no Harry & Meghan.

 

And, guys and gals, I hope that you too won’t give up when things get hard.

Because again, you’re bound to have losing trades — that’s part of the game.

But as long as you’re allocating only a designated percentage of your capital to each trade, and going into each trade with a game plan and a solid setup, you should throw more touchdowns than interceptions, and, thus, have longevity.

Author: Jason Bond

Jason taught himself to trade while working as a full-time gym teacher; his trading profits grew eventually allowed him to free himself of over $250,000 in student loans!

Now a multimillionaire and a highly skilled trader and trading coach, Over 30,000 people credit Jason with teaching them how to trade and find profitable trades. Jason specializes in both swing trades and in selling options using spread trades, which balance the risk of selling options. Jason is Co-Founder of RagingBull.com and the RagingBull.com Foundation which donates trading profits to charity. So far the foundation donated over $600,000 to charity.

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re aware that there’s been growing tension between the U.S. and Iran.

It started when President Trump ordered a strike that killed a top Iranian general.

Iran then threatened revenge on the U.S.—firing missiles at multiple bases housing American troops in Iraq (with no reported casualties, thankfully).

However, Trump was basically filing his fingernails, tweeting this and saying Iran is “apparently standing down”:

 

 

And while the S&P 500 initially plummeted after-hours on news of Iran’s retaliation Tuesday night, it ultimately bounced back yesterday to hit record highs.

And based on this morning’s action in the futures, we’re headed for another all-time high in stocks.  

Something tells me that this story is far from over. 

That said, I’ve put together a sector watch list—that could be active during these trying times. 

 

Airlines

 

Airlines are sensitive to fuel prices, for obvious reasons.

So when oil prices jumped late last week on the Iran general news, shares of the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) took a hit.

The fund recently marked its lowest close since October, in fact.

However, when we zoom out a bit, we find that JETS has been struggling to make a strong stand above the $32 level since early February 2018.

Rejections here have been met with support in the $27.50-$28 area.

Only time will tell if the exchange-traded fund (ETF) will make another pass at resistance near $32, or if this is the start of another retreat to a familiar floor.

 

 

It’s also worth noting that several airlines will begin reporting earnings soon, including Delta (DAL), which will report next Tuesday, Jan. 14.

The next round of quarterly figures, along with oil prices, could determine if JETS takes off or suffers more turbulence.

Meanwhile, Boeing (BA) is making headlines of its own.

Yesterday, the stock took a hit after a Boeing 737 fatally crashed in Iran, shortly after the aforementioned attacks on Iraqi bases of U.S. troops. 

The cause of the downed plane has yet to be determined (Iran attributed it to a technical failure before the plane even stopped smoking), but Boeing is no stranger to crashes — the 737 MAX is still grounded after a pair of fatal crashes in 2019.

In addition, several analysts took aim at Boeing stock yesterday, including Cowen, which downgraded BA to “market perform” from “outperform.” The brokerage firm said it expects the airline company to announce additional 737 MAX-related costs when it reports earnings later this month.

Boeing stock has spent the past several months bouncing along support in the $325 area, which represents a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the security’s quick-and-dirty rally from late 2018 to its early March high.

And considering BA has been making lower highs since September, I’ll be watching to see if this emerges into a full-blown descending triangle pattern — one of the bearish screens I run for my services.

 

 

Defense

 

Boeing is also considered a “defense” stock — that is, a stock with military ties.

When geopolitical tensions get heated, it’s not too surprising that companies supplying the U.S. military will see their shares get a boost.

Among the top holdings of the S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) are Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).

After a banner 2019, XAR shares recently broke out above resistance in the $112 area, hitting fresh highs. The ETF’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now on the cusp of overbought territory (at 70 or above).

 

 

It’s a similar setup with LMT, which just saw its biggest single-session volume since June, and its 14-day RSI in overbought territory for the first time since early July.

 

 

Bomber maker NOC also started 2020 overbought, and just tested previous highs around $380. This area halted the stock’s impressive rally in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how NOC fares here again.

 

 

Cybersecurity

 

Finally, cybersecurity stocks are on the collective radar amid U.S.-Iran tensions.

Remember a few years ago, when the Justice Department charged a bunch of Iran-backed hackers for coordinated cyber attacks on a bunch of American banks? 

Or when they knocked NYSE and Nasdaq websites offline?

Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Director Chris Krebs sure does…

 

 

The ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF (HACK) touts itself as the first and largest cybersecurity-based fund.

It also notes that the industry is “aggressively growing,” and “spending has grown 35x from 2003 to 2016 with 2017-2021 spending expected to combine for $1 trillion.”

After the U.S. took down the Iranian general, volume on HACK hit its highest point since late May. The ETF also rocketed into overbought territory, with a 14-day RSI now sitting above 78.

After marking a double top back in July, HACK shares took a breather until October, but since then it’s been mostly uphill, with the ETF touching a fresh high yesterday.

 

 

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is among HACK’s top 10 holdings.

AKAM stock gapped higher on Jan. 7, after Guggenheim upgraded the security to “buy” from “hold.”

The stock’s 14-day RSI is above 70 for the first time since late July, and it’s now testing a familiar ceiling in the $92 area, which put a lid on AKAM in the second half of ‘19.

 

 

It will be interesting to see if this sector sustains its momentum deep into January — or beyond.

In summary, I’ll keep watching developments between the U.S. and Iran — as well as how the three sectors above react to any news.

Author: Jason Bond

Jason taught himself to trade while working as a full-time gym teacher; his trading profits grew eventually allowed him to free himself of over $250,000 in student loans!

Now a multimillionaire and a highly skilled trader and trading coach, Over 30,000 people credit Jason with teaching them how to trade and find profitable trades. Jason specializes in both swing trades and in selling options using spread trades, which balance the risk of selling options. Jason is Co-Founder of RagingBull.com and the RagingBull.com Foundation which donates trading profits to charity. So far the foundation donated over $600,000 to charity.

Investing in stocks can be an overwhelming process, especially if you’re new to the stock trading world. Understanding some of the basic terms and phrases associated with stock markets and trading can help you feel more confident. As you become more familiar with the practice of trading, you can start buying and selling stocks to potentially earn high yields on your investments. Follow this handy guide to investing in stocks and go from a beginner to an expert.

Investing in Stocks for Beginners: Where Do I Start?

Investing in stocks for beginners often starts with a brief lesson on the various markets available for trading, timing your purchases and sales, the meaning of certain commonly used words and phrases, and choosing which stocks to trade. In today’s tech-heavy world, investing in stocks is easier than ever because you can do it from your smartphone or tablet. User-friendly apps make it easy to buy and sell, even if you don’t have a lot of money to invest.

A stock is an equity investment that allows you to purchase a portion of a corporation. When you own a portion of a corporation, you become a legally entitled recipient of the company’s assets and earnings. When you own common stocks, you hold voting rights, but you don’t have a guarantee that you will receive payments of dividends. Owning preferred stock does guarantee a dividend payment, although you don’t have voting rights.

You may also hear people refer to a security, especially when you’re learning more about how to invest in stocks for beginners. A security is a certificate of ownership, and it used to be a paper certificate but is now recorded electronically. Before you invest in stocks, you should always do some research on the company you are considering investing in so you know what to expect. It is also smart to know more about the various markets that offer trading opportunities, how to time your trading habits, and whether you need to work with a broker to get started.

One of the best ways for beginners to invest in stocks is to practice with play money before you start investing with your hard-earned cash. As you become more confident in your practice trades, you can start investing real money with the skills you have learned.

Give yourself a budget and start researching companies and stock prices. You can use a variety of resources to learn more about different corporations that offer their stock for sale. Public companies that trade on the major markets are more transparent with their financial details, allowing you to assess which are trending upward and may be poised for a major increase.

Here are some other important guidelines:

  • When investing in stocks as a beginner, the first step is understanding some of the commonly used words and terms, such as securities, common and preferred stocks, and dividends.
  • Gaining a better understanding of the various markets that offer stock trading opportunities can help you become more confident. The main markets include the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, and the American Stock Exchange.
  • Another aspect of becoming a more experienced stock trader is learning how to time your purchases and sales. Certain times of day, days of the week, and times of the year are more volatile, while others are calmer and more appealing to beginners.
  • As you become more familiar with the stock market, you can research different aspects of a company, including its financials and payout history, to determine which stocks may be worth considering for investments.
  • You may need to work with a stockbroker to buy and sell stock, although you can do so through smartphone apps and other online tools that make the process quite easy.

Investment Markets

There are three major securities markets in the U.S. where you can invest in stocks. They include the:

  • New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
  • American Stock Exchange (AMEX)
  • National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (Nasdaq)

The NYSE is the largest market in the U.S. while the Nasdaq is the nation’s largest electronic screen-based market. The AMEX includes mainly exchange-traded funds (EFTs). Some of the larger cities across the U.S. have their own major markets as well.

Some newcomers to stock trading choose to trade over the counter. This is a better option if you want to purchase smaller amounts or spend less money, although these companies aren’t subject to the same regulations as those on the major markets, so the risk can be higher. If you choose to trade over the counter, you can purchase stocks, commodities, currencies, and other assets without going through a central exchange or broker. A dealer provides a set price for an asset, which a buyer can purchase electronically.

How to Time the Market

Investing in stocks and shares for beginners also requires some understanding of timing the market. Learning to spot trends and shifts can help you increase your chances of success, even when the market has a downturn, which will happen at some point. All major markets experience upswings and downturns, so timing your trades can help you capitalize on the upward motion while maximizing your dividends and returns. Looking at the best times of the day, days of the week, and times of the year to trade will help you avoid major shifts.

When the markets first open in the morning, the volatility rates tend to be the highest. Various situations and events that take place after trading hours cause stock values to shift dramatically during the first few hours of trading. Many beginners choose to avoid trading completely until around 11:30 a.m. when the volatility tends to decrease a bit. From then until about 3:00 p.m., you can make trades and decide how you want to proceed. Near the end of the trading day, the volume of trades goes up, resulting in increased volatility once again.

As for the best day of the week to buy, many experts agree that it’s Monday. News releases and events that occur over the weekend, referred to as the weekend effect, can cause prices to go down, allowing you to buy low and potentially sell high. If you plan to sell, consider doing so on a Friday before the weekend effect begins once again.

It’s impossible to time your trades perfectly every time because factors will impact stock values that are beyond your control. Part of becoming a more seasoned trader is learning how to bounce back from trades that aren’t profitable. You can also learn how to manage momentum shifts and assess the potential for high returns on investments.

Choosing Stocks to Buy

There are two key ways to make money through the stock market. The first is to buy stock at a lower price and sell it at a higher price. The second is to hold onto stocks and earn interest and dividends from the success of the company. Your investment portfolio can include a diverse mix of stocks to improve your success rates and allow you to expand your horizons. As you decide which companies you want to invest in, take some time to research trending industries, as well as companies that may be in a position to grow or increase in value.

Some industries come with more risk than others. For example, marijuana is a hot industry right now but can be impacted by political events and other factors, making it riskier than an industry that may not be as affected by shifts in the political climate. Before investing, you should determine how much risk you can tolerate and how well you can manage risk. Higher risk stocks can provide higher yields, but they can also create a lot of stress among those who don’t have as much experience.

Working with a Broker

You may need to work with a stockbroker to invest in stocks. For beginners, working with a more experienced broker can offer a number of insights that help them become more successful. Many brokers provide options that are commission-free, allowing you to spend more of your money on investing rather than paying someone to broker a deal. The exception to this rule is if you plan to buy stocks over the counter rather than through one of the major exchanges. OTC trading doesn’t require the use of a broker because it is a decentralized market.

The stock market can be a confusing place to invest your money, but it is one of the most profitable options for those who are willing to take the time to learn more about it. At Raging Bull, we have the tools and resources to help you become a more experienced and knowledgeable trader.

Take advantage of a free training session with one of our seasoned trainers or download a complimentary e-book to get started. We also host webinars to teach beginners more about the practice of trading stocks. With the right resources, you can learn as much as you want about buying and selling stocks to begin building your own investment portfolio.

Author: Jason Bond

Jason taught himself to trade while working as a full-time gym teacher; his trading profits grew eventually allowed him to free himself of over $250,000 in student loans!

Now a multimillionaire and a highly skilled trader and trading coach, Over 30,000 people credit Jason with teaching them how to trade and find profitable trades. Jason specializes in both swing trades and in selling options using spread trades, which balance the risk of selling options. Jason is Co-Founder of RagingBull.com and the RagingBull.com Foundation which donates trading profits to charity. So far the foundation donated over $600,000 to charity.